Black Santa Hat

Hey guys,

I'm just wondering when these newly introduced rares will peak. When first released, they were being pc'd at around 600m, and they've been crashing since, currently at around 270m. When the Christmas Tree Hat came, it skyrocketed from aorund 800k to about 60m, then plunged down. Will the same thing happen to the Black Santa? This is note-worthy at this point in time, as a potentially good investment is currently at hand. Please share opinions/discussions about this. Thanks

The black santa hat is very rare and will remain very rare forever!

Let's say 100.000 people log in daily and get an average of 1 cracker per day via Challages and random skilling... +100,000 crackers a day.

400 crackers are dropped per world and we have 139 worlds so thats +55,600 crackers a day.

so I estimate 155,600 crackers enter the game per day for 15 days (= 2,334,000 crackers in total). The chances one get a black santa of a cracker is confirmed at 1/2000.

2,334,000 x 1/2000 = 1,167 black santa's total in the game after this mini event.

I can tell you that there are way more than 1.2k Masks/Santas in RS3 and they are worth quite abit. I'd think the price will settle long term at like 350-450m.

Hope this helps you abit.

Interesting calculations

Hope this helps

I'm doubting as to sell or keep. The cost is going down and what guarantees it'll go up. Idk that merchanting shtuff so I'll just keep.   

UPDATE:  There was a panic buy/sell frenzy earlier today, some people probs made tons of money... I missed it tho  This makes me think of Adri's earlier post, "I'd think the price will settle long term at like 350-450m."

http://services.runescape.com/m=forum/forums.ws?17,18,490,65249283,goto,29

(sorry for the bad quality picture lols)  

Even though it's crashing right now, I think it will rise up in the future. Like what Adri said, compared to the fish mask and the tree hats, there are far way less Black Santa hats.
I believe that the only reason why it's crashing atm is because players are still able to get them, and there are many people trying to merch it for the future.

i was just gonna post this question because i ended up getting one about a half hour ago fishing cavefish (and yes, i was shaking and my heart was racing). it scares me that it is crashing right now but i think ill hold on to it since this thread has some good points. thank you for the post

They have actually been rising for a week now. On the 28th of December they had dropped to ~180m, so the fact that they are over 350m atm shows that people are investing before they get discontinued instead of after like what happened to tree hats which rose for a month after, only to drop for many months since.

Billious wrote:They have actually been rising for a week now. On the 28th of December they had dropped to ~180m, so the fact that they are over 350m atm shows that people are investing before they get discontinued instead of after like what happened to tree hats which rose for a month after, only to drop for many months since.

very good point sir. but do you think that they can go higher considering they are so much rarer than tree hats?

I think 300m to be honest

i think this belongs here. random fluctuations in price FTW.

They should probably rise for about a month after they are discontinued with a few small drops along the way. After that though I think they will settle into the same trend as all the other rares which are slowly falling as they do until sometime between March and July where annually they start the long rise again.

Fuck... I bought one for 270M like 2 days ago....

Blue Partyhat wrote:Fuck... I bought one for 270M like 2 days ago....

dont worry too much man. they are at about 320 right now. so if you want to sell it you can make some profit

UPDATE:  Black santas are crashing now... why would this be though? Any clues? How low will they go?

well the street value and GE price almost almost evening out, so i guess the market is stabilizing for it.