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Active Flipping Spirit Shields

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Post by [ADMIN] Billious 20/8/2012, 1:24 pm

Active Flipping Spirit Shields
Firstly any high wealth flipping comes with risks so be fair warned and well prepared. Also all prices shown are not current and are included for explaination purposes only.

Contents

  • Introduction
  • Terms used by Price Checkers in Nex n SS Friends Chat
  • Terms used when Reporting Prices
  • The Chat Channel
  • Average Profits you can Expect
  • The Shields
  • Actual Flips
  • Useful Tips


Introduction

To actively flip spirit shield the friends chat "Nex n SS" is essential. Here you will find a guide to your buy and sell prices. People report their buys and sales in this chat and those reports are used to give margins on Nex armours, Glacor boots and Spirit Shields. This is community run chat, it's not anybodys JOB to run the lists, no one has to do it, they just do it to help. Ranks are there to enforce the rules, not to run the lists or confirm prices however they can do both of these things when they want to. In this guide I will focus on how the chat works, how they make their prices and then I will use examples to explain how to flip the 4 sigil infused spirit shields (Spectral, Arcane, Elysian and Divine). Spirit shields now have a trade limit of 1 per 4 hours thanks to a hidden update by Jagex in June of this year, including the plain spirit shield and the Blessed spirit shield. This means that after you buy 1 you can not buy another for 4 hours from that time. So this makes using most other methods of price checking difficult at best. First we need to know how "Nex n SS" make their prices and what the symbols mean that they use.


Terms used by Price Checkers in Nex n SS Friends Chat

Ranges - Ideally they try to give a range which is made up of an instant sell price and an instant buy price. An example of this might be 102-3 meaning the item instantly sells at 102m and instantly buys at 103m. These ranges are made up as whole numbers where ever possible excluding cheaper items, in our case excluding the Spectral and Arcane spirit shields. So if they get an instant sell price of 220.1m and an instant buy price of 221.9m then they will give the range of 220-2. Now if they don't get an instant buy or sell they will use a non-instant for the opposite price. So say they get an instant sell at 100m and a non-instant sell at 102m then they will assume that the non-instant sell is an instant buy because the seller was waiting for some time until a buyer came along who would have put that buy price in and gotten the item instantly. This makes the range 100-2 meaning 100m instant sell to 102m instant buy.

~ - This symbol is used in two slightly different ways. The main time it is used is when the range is between two .5 numbers. For example 160.5m to 161.5m would be shown as 161~. So most often when you see this symbol it means + or - 500k. However it can also be used to state then median or average price. At this time it does not have to be 500k either side but it will be the middle price and at this time it may also have a decimal point ie 23.4~. In this example you would need to guess how far on either side the buy and sell prices are, making it harder to flip if you don't know the usual margins the item has. But as a general rule it will be no more than 500k on either side of the price given.

< and + - These are used when there is only one report or one type of report at a very similar price. The first < being no more than the number following it and + being no less than the number preceding it. So if the only price they have to work with is an instant buy at 434m then they with state the items price as <434 meaning its' prices (both buy and sell prices) are equal to or below 434m. Likewise if the only price they have is an instant sell of 86m then they will say it is 86+ meaning that the prices is equal to or over 86m.


Terms used when Reporting Prices

In and Ni - in = instant, it is either an instant buy or an instant sell depending on the trade reported.
ni = non-instant, it is either a non-instant buy or non-instant sell depending on the trade reported.

Overcut/undercut - Overcut means that the sell or buy price is a few gp over the price that is being reported and undercut means that the buy or sell that is being reported is a few gp under that price. People often do this so that their buy or sell gets taken first over the number of people who have offers in at the exact price.

Conflict - This is an offer on the GE that contradicts a report. Now this is not something I have needed to use but I have had it used against a legitimate report of a sale I have given. It's a kind of a last resort to stopping manipulative reports. If a conflict on a price is reported the price checker will not use that report to make the price range until another similar report confirms it. For example if I had a buy offer at the low price of the given range that has not been completed (still waiting for it to buy) and someone reports an instant buy below my price then I would have a conflict with his report. The reason is that if someone put a lower sell offer in for that item, my offer would fill and they would get my price as I have the lowest offer on the GE. The only way the other person could get it cheaper would be if he had a lower buy offer than me and waited for someone to sell it at or below his price. This means he could not get it instantly and is therefore lying. To report a conflict simply state "I have a conflict with (either use the offending price or persons name)" and then wait to be asked what the conflict is. You might not get asked this if a few people also report a conflict, but if you do all you have to say is "I have an offer of (your price) for (how long it's been on the GE). Never accuse someone of manipulating just state that you have a conflict with them, and only if you have an offer still waiting to be filled (buy or sell) that they are contradicting.

Low Volume - This refers to the slow time of day when the majority of players are not online (in bed/at work or school). At these times less items are traded and are available to buy. Because many players are trying to trade a limited amount of stock, extreme sales can be made. So if all the reports for an item are within 1-2m of the PCers price as is normal for say an Elysian and then a report comes in that is 5m above the PCers price this would be called a low volume trade. That is if there are no conflicts with it and it is around this time of day.

When a PCer Leaves - When a PCer leaves he posts the current price lists on runescape official forums (RSOF). Another PCer should take over, unfortunately this is not always the case. At times where there is no PCer confusion runs riot throughout the chat. At these times it is best to stop and come back later unless you have an item you need to sell. Because of the confusion you can sometimes buy an item cheaper and sell it for more, but this is very risky. If you have an item that you need to sell then either go by the price on RSOF or by the last pc you saw. It is best not to go for a big margin as it may drop by huge margins during this time of panic so sell at or just above your buy price to try and get out safely. When a new PCer starts they either take the last prices from the forums even though there may have been many new reports since at different prices. Or the new PCer starts with unknown prices and trys to remake the lists from new reports (I always hope for this but it doesn't always happen). Either way most players panic sell when this happens so it is best to get out as quick as you can. Below is a link to the Nex and SS thread on RSOF. The first page shows the rules, how the prices are made and lists the ranks and most of the PCers. The last post on the last page will have the most current price lists. It can be helpful to look through the last few pages to see price trends before commiting to a purchase.

http://forum.runescape.com/forums.ws?17,18,125,63890638,goto,1


The Chat Channel

As for the chat its' self the usual respect is advised, no swearing, spamming or flamming etc. Unlike R Quark you can talk about things other then price checks as long as the price checks continue and you Do Not talk about trends. Overnight sales and old prices are a sure way to get kicked out of the channel so be aware. It is seen as an attempt to manipulate the prices and Will Not be tolerated. Also Do Not report non-buys or non-sells as this is also seen as an attempt to manipulte the prices.

I also STRONGLY advise not announcing your buys as this can lower the range while you have the stock in hand and this is a good way to lose money. Feel free to request prices but don't spam your requests, a little patience goes a long way.

Also be warned people do try to manipulate prices so don't jump straight in, wait a little and watch the prices so that you know roughly where the price should be even if it's moving up or down. 2 or 3 prices around the same area is usually enough to be sure it's not a manipulated price.

Any extreme prices, a price that is very far away from the current range, will not be used unless either a rank confirms the new price or multiple prices by non-ranks are given around that price point.

The prices we are interested in here are the ss or spirit shield prices and they are either presented individually with a short version of their names - spec = Spectral, arc = Arcane, ely = Elysian and div = Divine, or they are shown all together as the ss line = Spectral/Arcane/Elysian/Divine. I have seen some price checkers reverse the order, div to spec, but the prices should make you aware of this as div's are traditionally the most expensive and spec's are traditionally the cheapest of the shields. If in doubt ask which is which. I have never seen prices change from this order ie: Elysian being more expensive than a Divine.


Average Profits you can Expect

Average Margins - Spectral Spirit Shield - 200k - 400k
---------------------Arcane Spirit Shield -- 300k - 600k
---------------------Elysian Spirit Shield --- 700k - 1m
---------------------Divine Spirit Shield ---- 800k - 1.5m

These are just average prices. You should be able to get profits within these margins most of the time unless you get caught by a sudden drop in value while you are trying to sell. Unfortunately this is always a possibility. At these times it is generally best to sell and take the loss so that you have the capital to try again later. 1 loss will be cancelled out by a few smaller wins as you get the hang of it. At times bigger margins can be made with all of the shields so while you have the money you have the chance of making any loss back fairly quickly. In general the more expensive the bigger the margins can be.


The Shields

Spectral Spirit Shield - The cheapest and probably the most stable of the sigil infused spirit shields. Because they have such a small price range they can be hard to make profit from and they can be slow to flip. Ranges are rarely given for these as generally there is a 500k margin at best.

Arcane Spirit Shield - The next shield up in price range, it has been gaining in price overall since Jagex announced they would be updating it as a mage shield in the Evolution of Combat update that is still to come. Due to the increased interest some nice steady profits can be made from these and they are great for a beginner to learn from as they don't have the potential to crash by as much as the more expensive shields.

Elysian Spirit Shield - Probably the shield I have flipped the most. Where the previous two shields may be considered medium wealth this one if definately a high wealth flip and therefore comes with much higher potential to crash drastically. This is where the chat pricing system uses whole (rounded) numbers most of the time and so the ranges given quite often have a 1m difference. One thing to note is if this price really crashes big then most likely the same will happen to the Divine and vise versa. The cheaper two shields tend to take longer to be affected by an event like this but they will lower over time.

Divine Spirit Shield - The most expensive and the most desired of all the spirit shields so it therefore comes with the greatest risks and rewards. It is not unusual to see a 2m range on these which can make for a nice quick flip. This is not always the case but it does happen often. If this shield has been rising in price for a few days rest assured the other shields will follow. A word of warning though, I have been caught when this shield has dropped over 20m in 10-15 minutes as when it does drop in value most people panic sell and dump the item crashing the price, then others panic sell which in turn creates a massive crash. So even if you do have the cash to flip these I would stick to the Elysian until you get the hang of spotting these sudden crashes better. In the end even the best get caught by this, but by flipping Divines often the overall profit you make far exceeds the loss from one failure.


Actual Flips

I find the best way to explain how to flip items is to use examples and explain how I managed to do them. So lets begin with the Spectral spirit shield, the cheapest, and work our way up to the Divine, most expensive. Keep in mind that all these examples were flipped on the same day. The Elysian was first to buy so I focused on that more while watching the price of the Divine. The Spectral was a close second and the Arcane third. On the Divine I took a lot of time before buying and you will soon see why.

Spectral Spirit Shield

Active Flipping Spirit Shields SpecBuy
Here I have edited in the ss line from the chat channel. As you can see Spectrals were priced at 25~. Being that this is a low priced item in terms of what the friends chat covers I assumed that this was the average price. Knowing that this item can have a 500k margin I guessed that the buy price would be about 24.75m, but to be safe and in the hope of a bargin my first offer was 24.65m. After 10 minutes I raised the price by 50k (this time was a bit long as my attention was more on the other shields). When this didn't buy I raised it again by 50k, then 25k each 5 minutes until I finally got one at 24.95m. Just before I bought it there was a report of a non-instant sell at 25.3m. As this made a good margin for these I placed the shield on the GE at that price and it sold within 3 minutes. If there was no report I would have tried to sell it at 25.5m and then lowered my price by 25k every 5 or so minute until it sold. I would pick 25.5m as it is a little more than the usual margins and I always try for the best possible profit. The Spectral is stable enough to try for more as you have time to test a high price as well as having time to slowly lower it until it sells.
The Sale:


Arcane Spirit Shield

Active Flipping Spirit Shields ArcBuy
With the Arcane price given of 61~ and rather than take a risk since I hadn't been watching the prices for long I placed a buy offer at 60.5m. But before I went to raise it a report came in and so the price changed to 61.5~. I assumed the 61~ must have been an old price or I had missed a few reports so I changed my price to 61.1m. The extra .1 was because it had just risen I doubted I would be able to get one exactly on the old price. Turns out I was right. I continued to raise the buy price by 50k every 5 minutes until it bought at 61.25m. Because the average margin for the Arcane is about 500k or so and it had recently risen in price I put an offer in of 61.75m which sold within 2 minutes. If I had tried for a little higher price first I most likely could have gotten more, but 500k for a fairly quick flip is still pretty nice.
The Sale:


Elysian Spirit Shield

Active Flipping Spirit Shields ElyBuy
The Elysian was the first shield I managed to get on the day. Sorry I put the ss price list on the sell picture by mistake. These shields most often have a 1m range as is shown here and I always try to buy them 200k below the low price when they have a range like this. Quite often get it too. This time I didn't so after about 5-10 minutes I raised the price 100k and bought one for 254.9m in about 4 minutes. I then tried to sell it at the high price 256m which I don't often get but I still like to try, but after about 5 minutes or so I lowered it by 100k. As I was getting ready to lower it again it sold for 255.9. Now I normally would have expected to sell it about 200k below the high price but I was lucky this time and made an extra 100k only because I tried for it. When you get a feel for the amount of profit you get when flipping these, instead of going straight for that margin it is still always good to try for a little more, but don't take too long or you may give the price a chance to fall on you.
The Sale:


Divine Spirit Shield

Active Flipping Spirit Shields DivBuy1
Now before I begin on the Divine please look back at its' price in the ely flip first, then the arc or the spec flip (both are the same) and then finally the price we have quoted here. This was the order I flipped them in and you can see the radical price change. I seemed to have picked a very unstable day to use as an example but it is good to see what damage can be done in a few short hours. I will add another Divine flip to show you what it's like when it is more stable, at a later date. Anyway I noticed it was dropping so I waited. It dropped to 358~ after about 4 hours then slowly started to rise. I didn't watch it the whole time but when I saw it had bounced to this point (about 3 hours after the 358~ price) and that such a large range was given I thought I could take the risk as it seemed to be on the rise again. Luckily it was. When there is such a large range and it is rising you can't expect to get a Divine at or below the low price unless it's crashing. I expected everyone to be trying to either sell it a little above the low or buy it a little below the buy. Also I wanted to make the flip as quick as possible so it didn't have the chance to drop on me like it had earlier. So I put a buy offer in at 381.5m for only a couple of minutes before raising it to 382m. I was not willing to go any higher incase I got caught with it, in which case it might be months before it rises to a similar price. After about 10 minutes I got one. I then put it on at a price the same margin away from the high as I had from the low when buying, 384m. After 5 minutes I was about to lower it when it sold. A nice 2m flip in about 15 minutes tops. I checked the price again a few times but it continued to bounce up and down between 380 and 400m for the next several hours. I wasn't willing to tempt fate on it again until it stabilised some more.
The Sale:


Divine Spirit Shield 2nd Flip very late the next day

Active Flipping Spirit Shields DivBuy2
After looking on RSOF and seeing that the price had been fairly stable for the last 12 hours roughly I decided to try again. The range given in the chat had a 2m margin which is pretty normal and all of this suggested it had stablised. Now being a 2m margin you don't normally get the whole 2m but to be on the safe side I put an offer in at the low price 361m. Within a minute or 2 it bought and this worried me a little as I expected to have to go higher. But you do get bargins from time to time. To be safe I tried to speed the flip upby putting a sell offer in at 362.8m. After 5 minutes I lowered it by 100k, then again after another 5 minutes. Not long after I lowered it for the third time to 362.5m there was an instant sell report from a rank of a little over 360m and at almost the same time a non-instant sell at 361.7m. This changed the range given to 360-2 as shown in the sell picture. I immediately lowered the price to 362m flat and after about 5 minutes or more it sold. Sometimes patience can pay off or work against you if you wait too long but this time it worked.
Spoiler:


Useful Tips

  • Watch the prices for a little while before you begin flipping.
  • Check Nex and SS on RSOF to see the trends over the day. http://forum.runescape.com/forums.ws?17,18,125,63890638,goto,1
  • Always try to buy low in the hopes of a bargin.
  • Try to sell quickly so the item does not have the chance to fall in price on you.
  • If prices drop sell quick so you have the money to try again another time.
  • Be wary of extreme report. People may be trying to manipulate the prices.
  • Don't report your buy price (unless you have already sold it) so that you don't lower the price on yourself.
  • Don't report old prices/overnight sales or talk about trends. You will get kicked for this.
  • When there is no one doing PC's avoid starting a flip since people tend to panic when this happens.
  • Click on the friends chat button underneath the chat bar so that you only get the FC chat in the dialogue box and don't miss anything



Last edited by Billious on 20/8/2012, 1:33 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by Tomatinho 20/8/2012, 1:29 pm

"you will find you will find" in the introduction first line

Only speed read it, but looks nice mate!
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Post by [ADMIN] Billious 20/8/2012, 1:32 pm

Ok thanks for that. Fixed it now.
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Post by mypet tr0ll 20/8/2012, 1:39 pm

Fantastic guide mate, very well written and great examples Razz

Given you the points as well Razz
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Post by Julij2 20/8/2012, 1:42 pm

Nice guide.

I'm sure this will help many people Smile

If they'll bother with reading this wall of text Razz

+rep
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Post by [ADMIN] Billious 20/8/2012, 1:45 pm

Yeah I know it's pretty long, but even if they refer to sections while in the chat it should help. I hope.
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Post by Towno 20/8/2012, 1:46 pm

This has got to be one of the best, maybe the best, guide i have seen.

It is super detailed, has pictures and is so informative. This has really helped me a lot billious and you deserve a +rep for this guide. I never knew much when it came to ss flipping because I never knew the margins I should expect, therefore I was getting little profits on them, like 250k on an arc ss and 150k on a SSS.

Thanks for the guide billious SmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmileSmile
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Post by Paradijs 20/8/2012, 1:57 pm

amazing guide
read it carefully and learned some interesting stuff!
thx man + rep
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Post by gugu2903 20/8/2012, 2:48 pm

Great guide, I've been active flipping the lower Spirit Shields for a while, but the higher shields seemed way to unstable to attempt, now reading the guide I've understood how volatile they can sometimes be, and how to stay safe, this guide is very in-depth and informative and I'll probably try the higher wealth shield now. Thanks for sharing Smile
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Post by Mr Kennedy 21/8/2012, 12:26 am

Great guide Billious, very well put Smile
Alot of Information , luv it <3

+rep
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Post by Mr Leviathax 21/8/2012, 12:37 am

Great guide Bill thanks for sharing it with us Very Happy

+rep!
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Post by cinis7 21/8/2012, 8:27 am

EPIC guide billious thanks! +rep
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Post by ArmadyI 24/8/2012, 9:49 pm

Spectral and Arcanes are working really well atm. Thanks for you help:)
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Post by Frozen Ways 25/8/2012, 9:07 pm

Billious- one of the best persons from the forum.


Great guide.

+ rep.
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Post by Watchm3r0lex 27/8/2012, 6:33 pm

Great guide only just joined fc and made over 1m flipping SmileSmileSmile

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Post by scoped rifle 2/9/2012, 10:49 am

Great Guide, Thank You. If I could +rep you. I would Razz

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Post by rexxnar 2/9/2012, 10:52 am

This guide is what i need soon Very Happy thanks mate very detailed +rep!
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Post by Cem 3/9/2012, 1:51 am

Nice and detailed guide, even though I find the profit margin way too small for such high prices
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Post by LoveToFlip 9/9/2012, 11:31 am

nice guide is it good to do while you go to school? like buying a few spectrals while i'm not home and afterwards selling or is it kinda very risky?

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Post by Obbyshaggz 9/9/2012, 12:34 pm

Wonderful Guide, Helped out a Shit load due to Getting the wrong FC chat the last 2 Weeks! Heh I Got it Backwards >.<

LoveToFlip wrote:nice guide is it good to do while you go to school? like buying a few spectrals while i'm not home and afterwards selling or is it kinda very risky?

I Wouldn't recommend doing that, the prices change fairly rapidly at times; you could lose a decent amount.

As for Selling them while away, I don't see a problem in that as it can take a decent amount of time to sell even at the going rates.



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Post by [ADMIN] Billious 9/9/2012, 6:08 pm

While flipping them inactively (like when your at school) can be done, I don't recommend doing it from this guide. Even spectrals can change price by 2m during that amount of time. If you were to do this you would have to look at the recent trends, factor in any possible updates (like the recent godwars update) and how they would effect the prices as well as other things not mentioned in this guide. So basically if you choose to try this be aware of the risks and do some research before you try it.
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Post by MinhZor 10/10/2012, 2:28 am

thanks Im making a lot of profit of spectral ss now =D

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Post by MinhZor 10/10/2012, 2:29 am

Do you recommend doing spectral shields overnight?

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Post by [ADMIN] Billious 10/10/2012, 10:23 am

This is a guide for active flipping (done in one sitting). If you want to overnight them then you would have to look at the trends, are they rising or falling and proceed accordingly. If you are interested in overnight flipping may I suggest you apply for the inactive/overnight mentee group.
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Post by Mayhem 14/10/2012, 4:12 am

nice guide

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